On Saturday, March 24th, I had the privilege of participating in my second Tout Wars mixed league auction (here’s the spreadsheet tracking that auction). Rather than give a player-by-player recap of my auction (which would interest no one besides myself, and is almost a month out-of-date at this point), here are some observations I’d like to share based both on this auction and a number of others I participated in this spring:
After two years of relative pitching dominance, the price of premium pitchers is dropping, especially in mixed league auctions. Not a surprising result - when the supply of pitchers capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is increasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should drop, and that’s exactly what happened. Clayton Kershaw was the only pitcher who went for $30, while Justin Verlander went for $27, and Roy Halladay went for $26.
Surprisingly, the cost of elite hitters isn’t increasing. When the supply of hitters capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is decreasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should increase. However, Albert Pujols was the most expensive hitter, costing $43 - I believe last year he went for just under $50. There were only 6-8 players who cracked the $40 mark. So, if people were spending less than last year on both top hitters and top pitchers, where were they spending their money instead?
Owners spent more of their hitting dollars on potential breakout players. If you purchased Lucas Duda, Cameron Maybin, Brett Lawrie, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hosmer, or Jason Kipnis during an auction this spring, you probably spent more on them than you anticipated. However, there were some exceptions to this observation, including Mat Gamel, Jose Altuve, and Chris Davis. I guess I was just more bullish on the prospects of the players in the latter group than most of my peers.
Owners were still willing to spend big on top closers. If no money manager will ever be fired for buying IBM, the fantasy baseball auction strategy corollary is that no fantasy baseball team owner will be mocked for purchasing Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon.
Owners were also willing to spend more money on potential closers. Many fantasy owners take it as gospel that “Thou shalt not overspend on closers”. Those who purchased Andrew Bailey, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Matt Thornton, Kyle Farnsworth, and Drew Storen in auctions would wholeheartedly agree. However, that certainly didn’t stop owners from speculating, perhaps even more than was prudent, on closers-in-waiting such as Vinnie Pestano and Addison Reed.
Even in an expert league such as Tout Wars owners are naturally risk-averse, perhaps even exceedingly so. Some players went for less than I thought they would because of injury concerns (e.g. - Kendry Morales, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis). Some went for less due to the fact they’re still unproven (e.g. - Mat Gamel). Some went for less because they’re “old” (e.g. - Paul Konerko). Some went for less due simply to the fact that they were horrible last season (e.g. - Adam Dunn). I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if, barring injury, every player mentioned in this bullet ends up producing fantasy value far in excess of what their owner paid to acquire them for the 2012 season.
Jump-bidding is a bad use of limited resources. Some owners believe that by increasing the current high bid by more than a dollar or two (affectionately known among fantasy owners as “jump bidding”), they’ll send fellow owners a clear message to “back off”. The only message this tactic sends is that you weren’t paying enough attention in your college economics class. You may have deterred other owners from trumping your bid on Clayton Kershaw early in the auction, but when you end up filling your pitching staff with the likes of Jamie Moyer at the end of an auction, you’re team is in trouble before the season even begins.
Having a planned strategy and a predetermined budget heading into an auction is a good idea, but being flexible and able to adapt your plan on the fly is even better. Saying you’re not going to spend more than $20 on a starting pitcher is understandable, but if you stick to that position even when Roy Halladay is on the block, and the current high bid of $25 is $10 less than what you think the player is worth, unless they’re hiding an injury from the training staff, it’s worth making the adjustments to your roster in order to fit him in under your salary cap.
Buy stats, not players. Set targets by category before the auction starts, and monitor them like a hawk during the auction. Many owners spend massive amounts of their brainpower during an auction tracking how much money each of their opponents has remaining, who has what roster needs remaining, and how will to keep in touch with them even after the auction. I believe it’s far more important to track teams’ cumulative hitting points or starting points. Let someone else obsess over which of the 300+ players that have already been purchased in the auction; you’ve got bigger fish to fry.
All of that aside, I prefer to think of an auction such as Tout Wars as an over-sized math problem rather than a referendum on my “player evaluation skills” - I’ll leave that to the professionals (scouts, that is). How do you get the most points in your league, subject to the constraints of a salary cap, roster requirements by position, and overall roster size? Who is going to make the shrewdest waiver wire pick-ups in the first month or two of the season? Which owners are going to agree to the right trades at just the right time?
I had the privilege of participating in my first Tout Wars auction this past weekend as one of the 15 participants in the mixed league. Sitting in that room felt a bit like being invited to sit at the big kids’ table for the first time, and the excitement I felt was comparable to how I feel as the Christmas season approaches.
It’s a tradition of sorts for Tout Wars’ participants to post a blog entry in the days following their auction in which they share their thoughts about their team. Since it’s my first year in the league, I’m going to start my own tradition and refrain from doing that. Such a recap would be as painful for me to write as it would be for anyone else to read. If you’re interested in seeing the gory details of the 15 rosters, they’re available in this Google doc. If you’re suffering from Tout recap withdrawal and want to read others’ thoughts, they’re available via the Tout Wars’ website.
Instead, I’ll offer a few general thoughts on the proceedings. First off, as you would expect in a league like Tout, everyone in the room is extremely well-prepared. You’re not going to sneak any players past people (unless you’re defending champion Andy Behrens, who purchased Scott Baker, Anibal Sanchez, Marlon Byrd, Michael Brantley, and Jim Thome for $1 apiece). To add to the challenge your player projections are highly unlikely to be significantly more accurate than those of anyone else in the room.
So, given that, how can you still make yourself stand out from the rest of the field in a Tout Wars auction (he asks rhetorically)? There are actually a number of reasons why your roster and results may vary greatly from those of your competitors:
Roster composition - do you focus on players’ overall fantasy value? Do you buy stats with little or no attention paid to the name that’s attached to them? Do you take a “stars and scrubs” approach (which generally works better in a mixed league than in “only” leagues), or do you try to diversify your risk by spreading money more evenly across the best available second and third-tier players at each position? Does position scarcity factor into your overall player rankings and associated fantasy values?
Auction budget - do you follow the more-or-less standard split of $180 for hitters/$80 for pitchers, or do you plan to deviate from these norms? Do you use your league’s history as a guideline for prices, or do you rely solely on your own judgement? Do you include slots for $1 players in your budget, or do you save a bit of money earlier in the auction so that you have $2 per roster spot to spend at the end and can trump the $1 bids?
Philosophy re: spending money - do you want to spend your money earlier in the auction on the marquee players, or do you want to exercise restraint so that you have more of a say in determining which players you purchase for your roster later in the auction? If your well-thought-out plan goes awry due to unforeseen circumstances, are you flexible enough to move to Plan B (or Plan H) on the fly, or do you stick with your original plan despite the bumps in the road?
Auction style - how predictable are you during the auction? Do you follow a consistent pattern in your bidding (e.g. - always raising the current high bid by $1), or do you vary your bidding style from player-to-player or stage-to-stage during the auction?
Nomination philosophy - do you nominate only the players you want, only the players you don’t want, or a mixture of the two? If you sense that one of your opponents is running low on funds and needs to buy a player at a specific position, do you nominate someone at that position in hopes they’ll overspend? If the previous nomination generated a bidding war over a specific player, do you follow by nominating a player at the same position as a consolation prize for the person who ended up with the short end of the stick in the bidding for the previous player?
Monitoring player news - almost everyone in the room has a laptop - do you check the player news and transactions during the auction hoping to gain an edge on your opponents (or at least stay even with those who also have laptops), or do you view that as an unnecessary distraction?
So, as you can see, even in a league as competitive as the Tout Wars leagues, there are plenty of ways you can still distinguish yourself (for better or for worse) from the competition. Don’t kid yourself - many of the participants are friends, but while the auction is on, we all want to put together the best fantasy squad possible. One competitor, J.P. Kastner, summed it up beautifully: “I wish everyone else in the room could finish tied for second!”It’s said that you can’t win a fantasy baseball league during your auction, but you can certainly lose it make things more challenging for yourself once the actual season begins if you have a less-than-stellar auction. Of course, there’s some good fortune involved - I doubt any of our rosters could withstand the loss of a star player or two for the season and still have a good shot at capturing the championship.Now comes the fun part. Owners will spend time assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each roster, including their own. Once you determine your roster’s weaknesses you have several choices:
Stand pat and hope you were overly pessimistic in assessing your roster (not likely).
Propose trades to other owners whose strengths match up nicely with your weaknesses, and vice versa (difficult to do in this league - no one wants to get “taken” publicly).
Work the free agent pool with the $100 Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) we’re each given. In a league like this it’s better to shoot first and ask questions later (e.g. - Jose Bautista in 2010). I’m guessing that once they participate in Tout Wars most owners also start paying more attention to minor league players than they did previously.
I’ve promised myself that I’m going to enjoy my first year in Tout Wars. Like everyone else, I’d love to win, but I also realize that it’s quite an honor just to be invited to sit with the big kids. Among the roughly 10 million fantasy baseball players in the US, I’m sure many would happily trade places with me in order to have the opportunity to match wits with the best-know experts in the fantasy baseball industry.I’m sure I’ll make some mistakes along the way, but most importantly, hopefully 2011 is the year that I finally learn to spell Ryan Madsen’s Madson’s name correctly.The SherpaFantasy Baseball SherpaThe Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s BlogThe Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars Mixed League auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Behrens
6,720
.280
244
1,042
126
1,063
Carroll
5,129
.286
180
785
70
776
Cushing
6,290
.281
214
895
165
971
Dennis
7,293
.280
277
1,104
150
1,118
Gonos
6,526
.276
259
1,027
97
1,069
Hoyos
6,983
.280
205
975
223
1,046
Karabell
7,492
.272
294
1,127
161
1,177
Kastner
7,324
.279
227
999
165
1,111
Liss
6,053
.279
231
887
123
917
Mack
7,009
.273
281
1,062
123
1,073
Patton
6,393
.278
244
924
206
1,024
Petera
6,668
.273
262
961
144
978
Pliml
6,908
.292
210
945
204
1,054
Roberts
6,691
.277
248
1,007
90
986
Salfino
6,905
.274
276
1,049
139
1,076
Schechter
7,404
.283
245
1,058
172
1,144
Van Hook
7,400
.284
256
1,067
171
1,059
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Behrens
1,211
69
66
4.11
1.22
1,132
Carroll
1,376
86
41
3.94
1.22
1,207
Cushing
1,261
75
32
4.50
1.35
1,099
Dennis
934
56
20
5.12
1.27
820
Gonos
1,251
80
64
3.91
1.24
1,170
Hoyos
1,185
69
53
4.25
1.28
1,009
Karabell
1,333
75
58
4.40
1.28
1,158
Kastner
1,452
87
54
4.22
1.27
1,219
Liss
1,228
74
95
4.03
1.23
1,096
Mack
1,375
84
72
4.27
1.28
1,274
Patton
720
39
84
4.26
1.24
560
Petera
1,191
74
53
3.96
1.28
1,019
Pliml
1,032
57
27
4.27
1.28
891
Roberts
1,313
77
40
3.93
1.24
1,193
Salfino
1,270
75
43
4.22
1.35
1,034
Schechter
1,335
81
81
4.16
1.29
1,063
Van Hook
1,032
57
45
3.95
1.24
809
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Schechter
66
52
118
Van Hook
63
54.5
117.5
Behrens
46.5
52.5
99
Gonos
41
58
99
Karabell
62
34
96
Kastner
46.5
47
93.5
Dennis
65
28
93
Patton
40.5
52
92.5
Mack
49.5
39
88.5
Salfino
50
38
88
Hoyos
44
41
85
Liss
23.5
60.5
84
Petera
44
41
85
Roberts
32
49
81
Pliml
48
30.5
78.5
Carroll
20
56
76
Cushing
34.5
24
58.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 17 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings give a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
Yesterday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars NL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Sunday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Cockroft
5,987
.284
193
843
180
946
Hertz
6,205
.275
209
893
101
885
Kreutzer
5,333
.276
156
729
156
792
Leibowitz
5,426
.281
207
768
139
828
Lombardo
4,082
.282
156
658
58
628
Melnick
5,313
.265
213
783
112
858
Pianowski
7,033
.272
263
1,062
73
1,002
Ravitz
6,003
.279
193
784
155
884
Schwartz
5,007
.285
190
731
83
762
Walton
5,787
.262
191
798
132
887
Wilderman
5,587
.276
178
767
156
838
Wilton
5,543
.268
180
745
107
733
Zola
5,252
.284
184
729
105
760
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Cockroft
1,220
68
31
4.06
1.27
1,130
Hertz
1,028
57
54
4.71
1.38
742
Kreutzer
1,416
82
0
4.18
1.30
1,017
Leibowitz
1,079
63
37
4.33
1.27
880
Lombardo
1,111
65
42
4.33
1.27
970
Melnick
1,078
58
12
4.51
1.31
989
Pianowski
1,156
62
65
3.99
1.33
1,014
Ravitz
1,068
63
72
3.80
1.25
942
Schwartz
954
54
74
4.25
1.30
786
Walton
1,243
69
38
4.60
1.28
981
Wilderman
995
53
55
4.67
1.32
928
Wilton
1,150
65
53
4.37
1.34
982
Zola
987
56
37
4.00
1.23
852
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Ravitz
44.5
52.5
97
Cockroft
56.5
36
92.5
Pianowski
45
35
80
Leibowitz
41
39
80
Walton
37
35
72
Schwartz
30
41
71
Hertz
42
28
70
Zola
26.5
42.5
69
Wilderman
33.5
26
59.5
Kreutzer
27.5
32
59.5
Melnick
37
20
57
Lombardo
14.5
38.5
53
Wilton
20
29.5
49.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 13 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
This past Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars AL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Berry
5,428
.277
205
782
102
754
Collette
5,913
.269
203
816
150
845
Erickson
5,388
.284
170
772
135
833
Grey
6,608
.276
218
946
177
1,014
Michaels
5,657
.277
173
789
126
859
Moyer
6,354
.283
226
972
111
975
Peterson
6,158
.276
228
897
94
943
Shandler
5,786
.281
188
806
129
890
Sheehan
5,485
.277
161
686
153
857
Siano
5,400
.281
170
781
87
851
Walker
6,397
.265
232
907
94
933
Wolf/Colton
5,261
.284
168
749
112
765
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Berry
977
58
41
3.96
1.21
935
Collette
1,142
69
40
4.67
1.21
932
Erickson
1,026
63
51
4.64
1.34
853
Grey
823
48
54
3.82
1.30
654
Michaels
1,249
78
38
4.00
1.29
982
Moyer
1,211
77
33
4.42
1.27
949
Peterson
1,040
61
58
4.52
1.29
894
Shandler
956
56
19
4.81
1.33
826
Sheehan
915
56
31
4.45
1.25
806
Siano
1,034
63
46
4.20
1.29
843
Walker
1,013
63
44
4.15
1.33
907
Wolf/Colton
1,028
61
51
3.70
1.29
926
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Grey
47
39
86
Moyer
48
31
79
Peterson
36.5
33.5
70
Walker
34.5
32
66.5
Collette
31
33
64
Michaels
30
33
63
Siano
21.5
40
61.5
Wolf/Colton
22
38
60
Sheehan
29
30.5
59.5
Erickson
29.5
29.5
59
Berry
24
34
58
Shandler
37
16.5
53.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 12 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!