The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Every fantasy baseball owner dreams of “discovering” the next Johan Santana or Jake Peavy before the rest of their leaguemates. However, many owners forget that for every Cole Hamels who bursts onto the fantasy scene and makes an immediate and lasting impact, there are many more pitchers like Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes, who disappoint their owners when their initial successes are tempered, if not outweighed altogether, by their struggles.

This season has been no exception. Johnny Cueto looked like the second coming of Bob Gibson in his first two starts; lately, he has looked more like the second coming of Kei Igawa, serving up in-game batting practice for his opponents’ hitting pleasure. Cueto will most likely be sent back to the minors shortly to gain some much-needed experience. Nick Adenhart has already been banished back to the minors after just three awful starts.

Meanwhile, this year’s early-season pitching surprises include below-the-radar types such as Edinson Volquez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, John Danks, Garrett Olson, and Vicente Padilla. What, if anything, do they all have in common? All except for Smith had MLB experience prior to this year. All except for Olson have switched organizations at least once in their career. All of them have made at least 10 starts in AAA. All of them are 23-24 years old, except for Padilla, who is 30.

Which of the pitchers in this group have the best chance at sustaining their success over the course of the season? I looked at Year-to-Date stats for all MLB starting pitchers, searching for those who have started at least 3 games, have a K/9 rate of at least 6, and a K/BB ratio of at least 2. I also looked at Batting Average Against on Balls in Play (BAABIP) to see whether “luck” played a factor in a pitcher’s success (or lack thereof). These screening criteria suggest that Volquez and Danks have the best chance at remaining successful, with Olson also being a possibility.

These criteria also turned up some veteran pitchers who may still be available in your league. Bronson Arroyo is off to an atrocious start due to a combination of bad luck (a .357 BAABIP) and a severe case of gopheritis (1.8 HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched). However, his 3-year averages suggest that he is a much better pitcher than that - if you have space on your bench, I would definitely take a flier on Arroyo rather than burn my waiver priority or Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) dollars on Clayton Kershaw, who has not pitched even a single game at the AAA level yet. If you’re going to gamble on an unproven pitcher currently in the minors, you’re far better off betting on Homer Bailey (the sequel) than you are putting your fantasy chips on Kershaw.

Other veterans who should do more for your fantasy staff than the likes of Darrell Rasner, Aaron Laffey, et. al. - Chad Gaudin (when, not if, he rejoins Oakland’s rotation); Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Schmidt, Kevin Milwood, and Curt Schilling (when they return from the DL). I’d also take a chance on Hong-Chih Kuo if he joins the Dodgers’ rotation. Shawn Hill and Jose Contreras are two other options to consider if you currently have holes in your pitching staff. Don’t get me wrong - none of the pitchers on this list will be receiving Cy Young votes this season, but they all have the potential to be serviceable starters at the back of your fantasy team’s rotation.

However, keep in mind that experience is not always an advantage - if you want to add Livan Hernandez, Matt Chico, or Sidney Ponson to your fantasy pitching staff, you do so at your own peril - they are definitely the fantasy baseball equivalents of the Trojan horse, and you will get no sympathy from me if you choose to add any of them!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

It’s just over 3 weeks into the 26-week baseball season, and some fantasy baseball owners are already hitting the panic button.

Which of the following moves, if any, would you make at this point in the season if you were playing in a mixed league that uses the standard 5 hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB) and 5 pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)?

• Drop Jose Guillen for Gabe Kapler
• Drop Edwin Encarnacion for Fred Lewis
• Drop Carlos Delgado for Nelson Figueroa
• Drop Francisco Liriano for Vicente Padilla

Amazingly, one owner in a 12-team league I play in has made all of those moves within the last week or so. I’ve never met him (we have an on-line draft), but I’d bet that he’s a Type A personality. He’s currently in 5th place in our league, but my guess is that he won’t be staying there for long if the above transactions are indicative of the way he’ll be managing his team this season. Vulture that I am, I swooped in and grabbed both Encarnacion (dropping Franklin Gutierrez) and Liriano (dropping Andy Sonnanstine) mere nanoseconds after I noticed their names on our league’s free agent list.

So, how should you evaluate a player’s unexpectedly hot/cold start in deciding whether to make a roster move? Let’s look at hitters first.

For hitters we’ll use Nate McLouth as an example of a fast-starter and David Ortiz as an example of a slow-starter. We’ll look at the following indicators:

1. Strikeout rate = K/AB
2. Walk rate = BB/AB
3. Batting average on balls in play (aka BABIP) = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K)

Let’s look at McLouth first:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (80 AB) = 12.5%
   • 2007 (329 AB) = 23.4%
   • 2006 (270 AB) = 21.9%
   • 2005 (109 AB) = 18.3%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 11.3%
   • 2007 = 11.9%
   • 2006 = 6.7%
   • 2005 = 2.8%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .403
   • 2007 = .301
   • 2006 = .275
   • 2005 = .274

It appears that McLouth is developing more patience at that plate as his career progresses. His increased willingness to take a walk suggests that pitchers realize they now have to throw strikes to get him out. His keys to future success: can he maintain his lower strikeout rate (unlikely) and high BABIP (even more unlikely) over the course of a full season? If you own McLouth, I’d suggest seeing what other owners in your league might be willing to part with in a trade in exchange for McLouth. If you have the opportunity to address several shortcomings on your current roster by trading McLouth, I’d do it.

Now let’s look at Ortiz:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (79 AB) = 20.3%
   • 2007 (549 AB) = 18.8%
   • 2006 (558 AB) = 21.0%
   • 2005 (601 AB) = 20.6%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 13.9%
   • 2007 = 20.2%
   • 2006 = 21.3%
   • 2005 = 17.0%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .197
   • 2007 = .358
   • 2006 = .274
   • 2005 = .309

Ortiz’ lower walk rate this season suggests that he is swinging at a few more bad pitches than usual. However, his strikeout rate is in line with his historical averages, which suggests that he is putting more balls in play rather than striking out more. His keys to future success: can he increase his walk rate so that it’s in line with his historical rates (likely)? Will his luck improve on balls that he puts in play, resulting in a higher BABIP (even more likely)? If you own Ortiz, hang on - he’ll be fine; in fact, I’d be shocked if he finishes the season with a batting average lower than .280. Conversely, if you don’t currently own Ortiz, send out a trade feeler to his current owner and see whether you might be able to pry him loose for something less than full value.

I’ll perform a similar analysis on a pair of pitchers (C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee) in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa